Methods of Risk Analysis and Management

Methods of Risk Analysis and Management RISK ANALYSIS METHODS Risk management can be divided into four steps: risk identification, risk assessment, risk control, and risk records. In recent years, studies have mostly focused on the risk assessment. Risk assessment is to analyze and measure the size of risks in order to provide information to risk control. Four steps are included in the risk assessment. According to the results of risk identification and build an appropriate mathematical model. through expert surveys, historical records, extrapolation, etc. to obtain the necessary, basic information or data available, and then choose the appropriate mathematical methods to quantify the information. Choose proper models and analysis methods to deal with the data and adjust the models according to the specific circumstances. Determine the size of risks according to certain criteria. In the risk assessment extrapolation, subjective estimation, probability distribution analysis and other methods are used to obtain some basic data or information. Further data analysis often use following basic theory and methods: layer analysis method, mode cangue logical analysis method, Monte Carlo simulation, the gray system theory, artificial neural network method, fault tree analysis, Bayesian theory, an influence diagram method and Markov process theory. We can divide the methods into qualitative analysis and Quantitative Analysis. Qualitative analysis: 1. Fault Tree Analysis Fault Tree Analysis Fault Tree Analysis (Fault Tree Analysis, FTA) can be used for qualitative analysis of risk and can also be used for quantitative analysis. It is mainly used for large-scale complicated system reliability and safety analysis. It is also an effective method to Unification reliability and safety analysis, through hardware, software, environment, human factors.FTA is drawing a variety of possibilities of failure in system failure analysis, from whole to part, according to the tree structure. Fault tree analysis using tree form, the system The failure of components and composition of the fault system are connected. We are always using fault tree in qualitative or quantitative risk analysis. The difference in them is that the quantitative fault tree is good in structure and it requires use of the same rigorous logic as the formal fault tree, but qualitative fault tree is not. Fault tree analysis system is based on the target which event is not hoped to happen (called the top event), one level down from the top event analysis of the direct cause of their own events (call low event), according to the logical relationship between the upper and lower case, the analysis results are obtained. 2. Event Tree Analysis Event tree analysis (event tree analysis, ETA) also known as decision tree analysis, is another important method of risk analysis. It is the events of a given system, the analysis of the events may cause a series of results, and thus evaluates the possibility of the system. Event tree is given an initial event all possible ways and means of development, every aspect of the event tree events (except the top incidents) are the implementation of certain functions of measures to prevent accidents, and all have binary outcomes (success or failure). While the event tree illustrates the various incidents causes of the accident sequence group. Through various intermediate steps in the accident sequence group can organize the complexity of the relationship between the initial incident and the probability of systemic risk reduction measurement, and identify the accident sequence group. So we can calculate the probability of each of the key sequence of events occurred. 3. Cause-Consequence Analysis Cause and consequence analysis is a combination of fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. It uses the cause analysis (fault tree analysis) and the result analysis (event tree analysis), CCA aims to identify the chain of events leading to unexpected consequences, according to the probability of occurrence of different events from CCA diagram to calculate the probability of different results, then the risk level of the system can be determined. 4. Preliminary Risk Analysis Preliminary risk analysis or hazard analysis is a qualitative technique which involves a disciplined analysis of the event sequences which could transform a potential hazard into an accident. In this technique, the possible undesirable events are identified first and then analyzed separately. 2 For each undesirable events or hazards, possible improvements, or preventive measures are then formulated. This method provides a basis for determining hazard categories and which analysis methods are most suitable. It is proved valuable in the working surrounding to which activities lacking safety measures can be readily identified. 5. Hazard and Operability studies (HAZOP) The HAZOP technique was origined in the early 1970s by Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd. HAZOP is firstly defined as the application of a formal systematic critical examination of the process and engineering intentions of new or existing facilities to assess the hazard potential that arise from deviation in design specifications and the consequential effects on the facilities as a whole.2 This technique is usually performed using a set of guidewords: NO/NOT, MORE OR/LESS OF, AS WELL AS, PART OF REVERSE, AND OTHER THAN. These guidewords, a scenario that may result in a hazard or an operational problem is identified. Consider the possible flow problems in a process line, the guide word MORE OF will correspond to high flow rate, while that for LESS THAN, low flow rate. The consequences of the hazard and measures to reduce the frequency with which the hazard will occur are then discussed. This technique is accepted widely in the process industries. It is mostly regarded as an effective tool for plant safety and operability improvements. Detailed procedures on how to perform the technique are available in some relevant literatures. Quantitative Analysis: Fault Tree Analysis It is explained in the Qualitative analysis. Expected value Expected value is the possible outcome times the probability of its occurrence. An expected value shows the percentage of yielding a target in a business. Sensitivity analysis In sensitivity analysis shows how the outcome changes in response of a particular variable change. One can get result from optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values. An example of inputs for sensitivity analysis is the material and labor cost that can be much fluctuated.

The Signal-Man By Charles Dickens :: Charles Dickens Signal man Essays

The Signal-Man By Charles Dickens Dickens gives a description of the railway cutting with intricate detail and encompasses it with a cloud of gloomy and a depressive mood. He associates places and objects with certain impressions which produce this large image of negative and horrifying vibes and feelings. When the narrating character has the first acquaintance of the railway cutting and signalman's box, Dickens bombards you with adjectives and depictions of a morbid and 'depressing' atmosphere. He called it a 'dungeon' which implies a sense of torture and a ghastly horrid nature. The very description of the signalman's box creates a feeling of suffocation and being trapped. 'On either side, a dripping wet wall of jagged stone, excluding all but a strip of sky; the perspective one way was only a crooked prolongation of this great dungeon;' The emphasis on the gloominess and 'forbidding' 'deadly' environment conveys the relevance to the storyline of pre-cursor of death and constant haunting and reminder of danger. Dickens also seems to always entertain the possibility of a supernatural presence. For example, the narrator had felt the dread of a following train, and when the wind 'struck a chill' to him. This allows for an interpretation of the apparent interference of a ghost in the plot like an outer world inspiration. The story throughout contains the ingredients and factors that make up a horror story, for example the chill, cold, 'gloomy', dark and 'deadly' moods, and the returning haunting ghostly figure with its repeating gesture. This is great support for the plot and it sets style and mood and adds fear and tension. The vivid interpretation of the 'dungeon' conveys the great torment the signalman was feeling inside, and shows the possible physical factors which could have psychologically affected him. The frequent indication of the solitude of the signalman, in the depressive and 'unnatural' atmosphere is

Grendel’s Mother and Beowulf

Not Just an Ordinary Person In order to establish Beowulf as an epic hero in the piece of literature Beowulf, he must possess all or most of the characteristics of an epic hero. An epic hero is the central figure in an epic who has superior qualities and risks personal danger to pursue a grand quest. There are ten specific characteristics that one must have to be considered an epic hero. One must be significant and glorified, on a quest, and responsible leader. One must also have superior or superhuman strength, intelligence, courage, and ethics.Lastly, one must risk death for glory or for the greater good of society, perform brave deeds, and reflect the ideals of a particular society. To be looked at as an epic hero, the first three characteristics a person must have are to be glorified, on a quest, and a responsible leader. The Geats say of Beowulf â€Å"Now when help was needed. None / Of the wise ones regretted his going, much / As he was loved by the Geats† (lines 116-119 ). The Geats saying such things about Beowulf tells that he is glorified by his people.The people of Herot have chosen Beowulf in lines 149-150 â€Å"My people have said, the wisest, most knowing / And best of them, that my duty was to go to the Danes’ Great king† to go on a quest to Denmark to kill Grendel and help save their warriors. In order to be recognized as a hero, one must be a responsible leader. One must be willing to put themself ahead of others, take action when needed, take the blame when something goes wrong, and take credit when things go right. In Beowulf’s case, one must know when to bring soldiers, and when to go into battle alone.In line 679 of Beowulf â€Å"Wait for me close by, my friends† Beowulf realizes that nobody can defeat the dragon but him, so he tells his men to stand back so no one gets killed when unnecessary. The qualities that just about all people see are one who has superior strength, intelligence, courage, and ethics. Most people define a hero as a person who has superior or superhuman strength. Beowulf is â€Å"the strongest of the Geats- greater / And stronger† than anyone else in the world (lines 110-111). Saying this shows that if Beowulf cannot defeat Grendel then nobody else can.Beowulf shows how intelligent he is in lines 134-137 when â€Å"Beowulf arose with his men / Around him ordering a few to remain / With their weapons†. Beowulf is smart enough to realize that if nobody stays with the weapons somebody will steal them, and they will be left unarmed when a war breaks out. To be considered courageous, a person must face something that would frighten most. Beowulf does just that on numerous occasions in Beowulf. Beowulf faces and conquers Grendel in lines 515-517 â€Å"The victory, for the proof, hanging high / From the rafters where Beowulf had hung it, was the monsters / Arm, claw and shoulder and all†.The mighty water witch, Grendel’s mother, becomes troub led with the loss of her son and wants revenge on Herot. When she attacks Herot, Beowulf takes action and conquers her in lines 643-645 â€Å"Her body fell / To the floor, lifeless, the sword was wet / With her blood, and Beowulf rejoiced at the sight†. Some heroes use special powers, or costumes to help them win the fights against the bad guys. However, Beowulf believes in being ethical. He does not want to be credited for winning a battle if every aspect of the battle is not considered fair.In Beowulf , Grendel is defeated by Beowulf unarmed in lines 669-671 â€Å"Crushed to death / Like Grendel, gripped in my hands and torn / Limb from limb†. Beowulf could have very easily used the weapons in the boat that his men were holding. Instead he did not because that would not be considered a fair fight. The last characteristics that must take place in order to be established as an epic hero is one must risk death, perform brave deeds, and reflect a particular society. If a person does not risk death for their society, they will not be considered a hero; one will be considered as just an ordinary person.However, Beowulf proves that he is not just an ordinary person when he performs brave deeds and is faced with death on numerous accounts for the good of his people. Beowulf faces Grendel, a man-eating monster; Grendel’s mother, a water witch; and the dragon, a hot breath and poisonous creature. When Beowulf faces Grendel’s mother in lines 620-623 â€Å"And in an instant she had him down, held helpless. / Squatting with her weight on his stomach, she drew / A dagger, brown with dried blood and prepared / To avenge her only son† he sees death right before him.He keeps fighting because in lines 683-684 Beowulf says â€Å"No man but me / Could hope to defeat this monster†. When Beowulf faced the dragon in lines 718-722 â€Å"The monster came quickly toward him, / Pouring out fire and smoke, hurrying / To its fate. Flames beat a t the iron / Shield, and for a time it held, protected / Beowulf as he’d planned; then it began to melt† Beowulf’s life flashes before his eyes again when he realizing that the shield is not going to hold up, and he will die from the dragon. Beowulf upholds the ideals of the Anglo-Saxon society; courage, loyalty, and honor throughout the entire literature of Beowulf.An epic hero is the protagonist in an epic who has superior qualities and risks personal danger to pursue a grand quest. In the piece of literature Beowulf, Beowulf must possess all or most of the characteristics of an epic hero in order to be established as one. Throughout the epic, Beowulf possesses the characteristics of glorified, on a quest, responsible leader, superior strength, intelligence, courage, ethical, risk death, perform brave deeds, and reflects ideals of a particular society on multiple occasions. Therefore, at the end of this epic, Beowulf can be confirmed as an epic hero.

Latino Gangs in Movies Essay - 745 Words

Latino Gangs in Movies American filmmakers of the late twentieth century portrayed Latinos as merciless pursuers of the American Dream. The Latino immigrants were characterized as Urban Bandidos, seeking the path to ultimate wealth and power in a society dominated by Anglo authority. West Side Story, Fort Apache, and Scarface each portrayed the Latino character differently, but commonly depicted the Urban Bandido as a man in search of money and power in America. Not only do these immigrants fight for the warped American dream, but they often fight without fear, willing to risk almost anything to reach the top. In West Side Story, the Puerto Rican gang known as the Sharks always gets blamed for the conflicts that arise†¦show more content†¦Newmans partner in the film who is engaged to a young Latina woman, pressures his future wife to sleep with him and she eventually gives in to her strong Anglo man against her original beliefs opposing sex before marriage. Fort Apache displays the widespread view that Anglos had more power in a hierarchical society, while Latinos were left weak and without control over their actions and values. Scarface portrays the Latino immigrant from a different perspective, as we can see in the character of Tony Montana, played by Al Pacino. He is a Cuban refugee willing to hurt anyone and do anything to gain power and wealth in the United States. He and his friends use guns, drugs, and sex to push to the top of the power chain, while of course pursuing the innocent Anglo woman. Once again we see the portrayal of Latinas as subordinate, weak and submissive to the domineering, overprotective male. We also see the same conflict over loyalty that we viewed earlier in West Side Story, but here the Latino puts family before all and kills his best friend in a rage of jealousy over the friends relationship with his sister. 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